Monday, December 31, 2007

Macro/Micro Updates from Kenya

ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga, after a recent press conference. (Image from Mentalacrobatics)

So anyone who reads this blog is probably pretty up to date about what has been going on in Kenya over the last day, either from the major international news outlets, from kenyanpundit, or for Chris Blattman's excellent wrap-up of local sources, so I'll spare you the full recap.

The most recent news reports from the national arena seem to indicate that things are taking a slightly different tone. The police commissioner, Major General Hussein Ali, has given a press conference stating that, despite rumors to the contrary, neither he nor any high ranking military officers have resigned, and that senior ODM (opposition) leaders are not currently under arrest or house arrest. In addition, the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, has taken a very responsible tone in his most recent press statement. He called off the "shadow inauguration" that was supposed to take place today, and instead scheduled a peaceful mass protest for Thursday. He has also spoken out against the violence that is taking place throughout the country, arguing that, “We will not recognise Kibaki as the President of Kenya and will fight him out of office through peaceful and legal means.”

On the ground, things seem a bit mixed. M., a friend of mine who is in the security forces in Kisumu (an opposition stronghold in Western Kenya) has reported that things there are quite bad. When I spoke to him earlier today, he told me "Its terrible man, terrible terrible. It is beyond us- these guys have turned rowdy- we can't contain them". According to him, police are struggling to contain the situation-Kisumu City is under a curfew from 6 PM to 6 AM, during which time no one is supposed to leave houses or enter or exit town. Despite these measures, people are moving out to rural areas, because violence is spreading into the suburban estates. While the violence still seems to be generalized looting, as I reported yesterday, M. reported that it is taking on a more targeted nature, "Everything is being burned- the Kikuyus [Kibaki's tribe] are being burned, their shops are being looted". According to M., at least 50 people have been killed.

Another friend of mine, R., is in Laikipia, the multi-ethnic region in north central kenya, where I did the bulk of my fieldwork. Laikipia (which is comprised of three districts- Laikipia North, Laikipia East, and Laikipia West) has a large population of Kikuyus and a substantial minority of various pastoralist tribes (Maasai, Samburu, Pokot, Turkana, Kalenjin) that all largely supported the opposition. He said that Nanyuki (the capital of Laikipia East District and one of the largest towns in central Kenya) has been peaceful, and even jubilant, largely because the vast majority of Nanyuki residents are Kikuyu. However, he said that as he traveled across Laikipia today, there has been substantial insecurity in more ethnically mixed areas- Kikuyu business owners and farmers have fled the market center of Ngare Nyiro, due to perceived hostility from their Maasai and Pokot neighbors. R. reported that in the western portion of Laikipia, which has experienced substantial violence off and on over the last few years, things are currently stable, but partially due to increased security presence- he said that he saw over 12 truckloads of various security forces (administration police, kenya police, army) in Rumuruti, the headquarters of Laikipia West. In this area, which is predominantly Kikuyu, R., who is Maasai, is concealing his ethnic identity- not wearing Maasai bracelets or speaking Maa, and if conversations turn to politics, he says things like "It is good that there is no change, it is our president who has been leading us", even though he has been an ardent supporter of the opposition over the last year.

Finally, a third friend of mine who is employed by the provincial administration in the Rift Valley said that things were generally cooling off across the rift valley. He said that last night there were violent confrontations in Nakuru (the capital of Rift Valley Province), but that things are cooling off now. He said that operations are being directed by District Commissioners, with higher levels of the Provincial Administration just monitoring the situation. They are trying not to act hastily as they know the region is a potential powder keg- ODM is very popular there, but there are also substantial numbers of President Kibaki's PNU, meaning that a heavy-handed response could only provoke more violence He said that the major hotspots in the province at present were in southern maasailand, particularly Narok South.

So it seems that Kenya is still at the critical juncture- things have not exploded everywhere and it seems that no "points of no return" have been crossed yet. I think Raila is the most important person in the country right now, and how he plays the next few days are going to be crucial for the future of the country. First, I think it is crucial that he really comes out even more strongly against violence, especially by working with local leaders from his political party to curb violent acts by their supporters. If ODM is able to actually control their followers, they will be able to make a strong case for being the coherent, unified, victorious party that they are claiming to be. Second, I think it is crucial that he continues to work closely with the international community, particularly the election observer mission, in documenting and verifying the election irregularities that he alleged yesterday. It seems that the international community is quickly jumping to his support- even the United States has just retracted its message of congratulations to Kibaki, meaning that we are ready to consider the evidence that this election was rigged and apply pressure to the regime. Its a fine line between peacefully advancing legitimate claims and recklessly stoking animosity and polarizing the populace- lets hope Raila stays on the right side of that line.


Laia said...

thanks for the amazing post, once again. I am not a Kenya expert,and not even an African expert, as you know. But let me make a point: to what extent can Raila's party exert control over this situation? I agree that probably they should try to exert discipline over their rank and file people, but are only the militants of this party those perpetating violence or are there other "opportunists" that are taking advantage to either loot or victimize personal enemies (or even ethnic ones)?
On the other hand, wouldn't be more useful that Kibaki did something about it -i.e. announce his defeat or even the celebration of new elections-?

best wishes for the new year, specially to those in kenya...

zhangxiaopi said...

solar fountain solar pump

版主支持你 said...

圣诞树 小本创业
条码打印机 证卡打印机
证卡打印机 证卡机
标签打印机 吊牌打印机
探究实验室 小学科学探究实验室
探究实验 数字探究实验室
数字化实验室 投影仪
投影机 北京搬家
北京搬家公司 搬家
搬家公司 北京搬家
北京搬家公司 月嫂
月嫂 月嫂
育儿嫂 育儿嫂
育儿嫂 月嫂
育婴师 育儿嫂
婚纱 礼服

婚纱摄影 儿童摄影
圣诞树 胶带
牛皮纸胶带 封箱胶带
高温胶带 铝箔胶带
泡棉胶带 警示胶带
耐高温胶带 特价机票查询
机票 订机票
国内机票 国际机票
电子机票 折扣机票
打折机票 电子机票
特价机票 特价国际机票
留学生机票 机票预订
机票预定 国际机票预订
国际机票预定 国内机票预定
国内机票预订 北京特价机票
北京机票 机票查询
北京打折机票 国际机票查询
机票价格查询 国内机票查询
留学生机票查询 国际机票查询

milf said...

black mold exposureblack mold symptoms of exposurewrought iron garden gatesiron garden gates find them herefine thin hair hairstylessearch hair styles for fine thin hairnight vision binocularsbuy night vision binocularslipitor reactionslipitor allergic reactionsluxury beach resort in the philippines

afordable beach resorts in the philippineshomeopathy for big with great mineral makeup bargainsmineral makeup wholesalersprodam iphone Apple prodam iphone prahacect iphone manualmanual for P 168 iphonefero 52 binocularsnight vision Fero 52 binocularsThe best night vision binoculars here

night vision binoculars bargainsfree photo albums computer programsfree software to make photo albumsfree tax formsprintable tax forms for free craftmatic air bedcraftmatic air bed adjustable info hereboyd air bedboyd night air bed lowest pricefind air beds in wisconsinbest air beds in wisconsincloud air beds

best cloud inflatable air bedssealy air beds portableportables air bedsrv luggage racksaluminum made rv luggage racksair bed raisedbest form raised air bedsaircraft support equipmentsbest support equipments for aircraftsbed air informercialsbest informercials bed airmattress sized air beds

bestair bed mattress antique doorknobsantique doorknob identification tipsdvd player troubleshootingtroubleshooting with the dvd playerflat panel television lcd vs plasmaflat panel lcd television versus plasma pic the bestThe causes of economic recessionwhat are the causes of economic recessionadjustable bed air foam The best bed air foam

hoof prints antique equestrian printsantique hoof prints equestrian printsBuy air bedadjustablebuy the best adjustable air bedsair beds canadian storesCanadian stores for air beds

migraine causemigraine treatments floridaflorida headache clinicdrying dessicantair drying dessicantdessicant air dryerpediatric asthmaasthma specialistasthma children specialistcarpet cleaning dallas txcarpet cleaners dallascarpet cleaning dallas

vero beach vacationvero beach vacationsbeach vacation homes veroms beach vacationsms beach vacationms beach condosmaui beach vacationmaui beach vacationsmaui beach clubbeach vacationsyour beach vacationscheap beach vacations


知多半島 旅館
知多半島 温泉
クレジットカード 海外旅行保険
広島 不動産
高知 不動産
徳島 不動産
高松 不動産
岡山 不動産


自動車 保険 見積
東京 ホームページ制作


知多半島 旅館
知多半島 温泉
クレジットカード 海外旅行保険
広島 不動産
高知 不動産
徳島 不動産
高松 不動産
岡山 不動産


国際協力ユーザーの皆さまが大手ECサイトで商品をご購入される際、グリーンクリックを経由していただくだけでECサイトから支国際協力。グリーンクリックを利用することで、商品の購入価 格が変わったり、寄付の
婚約指輪4℃オフィシャルサイトをご覧戴きありがとうございます。婚約指輪サイトをご覧いただくには最新のFlash Player[無償] 婚約指輪をインストールしてください。



sexy said...






アフィリエイト said...


Pokermaniak said...

Poker online with capital and sign up poker account for free promotion.
Get free poker money no deposit needed from trust poker free $25 no deposit networks.
Second site have similar starting capital for poker for all donar's may april bonus start Adventage nation bankrolls.
speed. It took them nearly 3 dayte $50 dollars for begin playing poker
Over 560$ to eat with free bankroll for start playing no restricted money without any risk, for new advanced and beginner sharks - all possible $50 bankrolls.
starting bankrolls for poker bonus information for poker, no deposit bankrolls from bet poker blog. Really nice blog.

kimberly sayer said...

costa rica fishing vacations,
sport fishing in costa rica,
costa rica fishing charters,
costa rica deep sea fishing,
costa rica fishing package,
costa rica sport fishing,
costa rica fishing tours,
costa rica fishing lodge,
costa rica fishing trips,
fishing jaco costa rica,
costa rica surf fishing,
fishing in costa rica,
tours of costa rica,
costa rica fishing,
saltwater fishing,
offshore fishing,
manuel antonio,
salmon fishing,
sport fishing,
fishing guide.

pedro velasquez said...

Unfortunately, bet basketball since I wrote on the situation in Kenya last month, the prospects have not improved and the country appears to be headed off a cliff. A series of mediators have failed to achieve any productive talks between the two parties. Neither South African Bishop Desmond Tutu nor the U.S. Assistant Secretary sportsbook of State for Africa Jendayi Frazier could even bring the two parties together to meet in the same room. Former UN Secretary General Kofi Annan managed to arrange a largely meaningless joint meeting between opposition leader Raila Odinga and President Mwai Kibaki, at the end of which Kibaki used his closing statement to assert his legitimacy as the “duly elected president of Kenya.” march madness This was followed by howls of protest from Odinga’s camp; Odinga then issued a statement rejecting any political compromise and demanding a new election. Meanwhile, Kenya burns and the mediation continues.

britney sayers said...

costa rica tours, shopping online, costa rica fishing, jaco fishing charters, costa rica whale watching, costa rica dolphin watching, costa rica party boat, panama fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing, costa rica los suenos fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing charters, costa rica los suenos fishing,

kiara said...

costa rica tours, shopping online, costa rica fishing, jaco fishing charters, costa rica whale watching, costa rica dolphin watching, costa rica party boat, panama fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing, costa rica los suenos fishing, fishing costa rica los suenos, los suenos fishing charters, costa rica fishing los suenos, los suenos costa rica fishing charters, costa rica los suenos fishing,

Roxy said...

Costa Rica Manuel Antonio Rafting, Costa Rica Kayaking, Costa Rica Hiking, Costa Rica Rafting, Costa Rica Bike Tours, Costa Rica Arenal Tours, Costa Rica Guanacaste, Costa Rica Tortuguero,
Costa Rica Gay Travel, Costa Rica Gay Tours,
Costa Rica Los Suenos Vacation Rentals, Costa Rica Los Suenos Fishing, Costa Rica Los Suenos Condos, Los Suenos Costa Rica Tours,
Costa Rica Los Suenos Sportfishing, Costa Rica Los Suenos Resort,
Costa RicaWhale Watching Tours, Costa Rica Dolphing Watching Tours,Costa Rica Dominical, Costa Rica Dominical Tours,

Costa Rica Weddings said...

Costa Rica
, Costa Rica
Wedding Packages
, Costa
Rica Weddings All Inclusive
,Wedding In Jaco Costa Rica,
Costa Rica Beach Weddings,
Los Suenos Wedding,
Jaco Costa Rica Wedding,
Jaco Wedding Planner,
Costa Rica Married,
Wedding Planning Costa Rica,
Costa Rica Wedding Locations,
Costa Rica Wedding Venues,
Costa Rica Wedding Packages All
, Costa Rica
Wedding Planner
, Getting
Married Costa Rica
, Costa
Rica Destination Weddings

Los Suenos Costa Rica,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Condos For Rent,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Vacation Rentals,
Los Suenos Condos For Rent,
Los Suenos Vacation Rentals,
Los Suenos Condominiums,
Los Suenos Condo Rental

Costa Rica Weddings said...

Rica Fishing Packages
, Costa
Rica Fishing Boats
, Costa Rica Fishing,
Costa Rica Sport
Fishing Packages
, Costa Rica
, Costa Rica
Fishing Packages All Inclusive
, Fishing Trips Costa Rica,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Fishing,
Los Suenos Costa Rica Fishing Charters
, Costa Rica Fishing Vacation Packages,
Costa Rica Fishing Packages All
, Costa Rica Fishing
, Costa Rica Fishing Trips
All Inclusive
, Sport Fishing
Costa Rica
, Costa Rica Sport
Fishing Charters
, Sportfishing
In Costa Rica
, Jaco Costa Rica
Fishing Charters
, Jaco Costa
Rica Fishing Packages
, Jaco
Costa Rica Sport Fishing