More Opinion and Analysis from Kenyans

Image of GSU policemen clearing out Nairobi's central business district prior to yesterday's cancelled ODM protest march, from mentalacrobatics

Tonight I've come across a number of excellent pieces written by Kenyans (and one Ugandan), both in Kenya and in the US, about how numerous nonviolent options are still viable but vulnerable:

Kenyaimagine presents one of the most thoughtful discussions of the various political options that I've seen, written by a collection of Kenyan professors of law and social sciences who teach in the United States.

Tavia Nyong'o, a professor of performance studies at NYU, writes in the Nation (the American magazine, not the Kenyan newspaper) about how the situation in Kenya is currently closer to Ukraine 2004 than Rwanda 1994. In the Kenyan Nation, Okello Oculi instead draws comparisons to Algeria 1992 and Nigeria 1993.

Mentalacrobatics has two excellent posts, one examining the roles that Kenyan civil society has been playing in providing humanitarian relief and dialogue and another providing an excellent photoessay documenting the state of affairs in downtown Nairobi and one of its suburbs prior to the aborted ODM rally yesterday.

A Kenyan who works in the financial sector analyzes the past week's violence, focusing on causes, effects, and ways forward (Bankelele, via kenyanpundit),

Kenya news updates

The big news from Kenya today is that ODM has postponed the million person protest/march in Uhuru Park after violence started to break out en route. The Nation has reported that almost every major road into Nairobi was blocked by security forces. The Nation, as well as - the BBC and wanjuguna all report that the protest will be rescheduled for tomorrow, but it is unclear how the situation will be different.

Stalemate At The Top

At the top, more and more officials inside and outside of Kenya are calling for probes into the vote tallying process, including various foreign diplomats,senior opposition leaders, and most interestingly the Kenyan Attorney general Amos Wako. However, as I argued yesterday, such a retally could be problematic due to problems reported with the official Form 16 (the vote reporting sheet) in a number of constituencies. Kenyanjurist points out the deeper problem with this kind of independent review is that it is unclear what the next step would necessarily be:

The problem with [tally by an independent body] is that it begs the question to what end. If he has already concluded that the court process is the only one that can reverse the decision of the ECK in declaring the election result then what is the need for having an independent verification without a remedy. What would happen it if found that the tallies and election material have been tampered with to the extent that it sould be difficult to know the winner of the election. Would the body declare a fresh election? What would happen if the independent verification revealed that the ODM candidate actually won the election. Would such an body declare the person president? Independent verification of the tallies and indeed the audit of the entire election process must be part of a larger political settlement.

The Standard reports that Raila has revised his conditions for a political settlement, saying now that he will take part in an interim unity government, with the understanding that the main role of such a government would be to prepare for a new presidential election, to be held in three months. While this is one of the more innovative political solutions that I've heard so far, it leaves a lot of questions wide open, such as how would further rigging claims and violence be prevented in a rerun of the election?

Perspectives from the Ground

The BBC has a running update of events in Kenya from its correspondents throughout the country, focusing on Nairobi, Mombasa, Eldoret, and areas along the Ugandan border.

Kenya Imagine compiles the "conventional wisdom" currently held by many PNU supporters- while not terribly systematic, I imagine that if you did survey interviews of PNU supporters throughout the country, you would indeed find a lot of convergence. This offers amazing insight into how polarization can become self-reinforcing and create belief traps- I would imagine you would find a similar amount of homogeneity in how ODM supporters describe the situation.

The Guardian has a harrowing set of interviews with both survivors and perpetrators from the church burning in Eldoret. A must read.

IRIN looks at the flipside of the violence in Eldoret, with a story cooperation and solidarity across ethnic lines.


Finally, White African has a comprehensive list of bloggers covering events in Kenya (many of whom I have been drawing on in my daily updates)-especially important now that Kenyanpundit has headed back to South Africa, where she currently lives.

UPDATE

A response to recent comments from Ameila and Cyrus can be found here.

Kenya: Ways Forward

Following on yesterday's press conference, The EU Observer Mission’s 15 page preliminary report emphasizes that the most serious irregularities occurred in the tallying of the votes. Excerpts:

In a large number, almost a third, of polling stations visited, party agents were not given a copy of the result sheets, either because the form was not available or they did not request a copy. Furthermore, in more than a third of polling stations visited, the results were not posted at the polling station level fundamentally undermining transparency measures in the process. The aggregation of results in the tally centres was delayed and also lacked transparency in many constituencies. EU observers noted variations in the procedures used in some of these centres, depending largely on time and logistical constraints. The combination of the lack of transparency and variations in procedures meant that the observation role played by local party agents and observers was restricted in this part of the election process.

In Central Province, the majority of EU EOM observer teams experienced difficulties in obtaining the results for each polling station from Returning Officers during the tally process. In several constituencies including Mathioya, Kaloleni, Mvita, Kisauni, Changamwe, Likoni and Central/North Imenti, the Returning Officers refused to provide constituency results to EU EOM observers before these results were confirmed in Nairobi. The constituency results form in Kangema showed to EU EOM observers was only signed by a party agent of PNU. A number of party agents reported that they were refused copies of result forms. Furthermore, according to the ECK Chairman, some Returning Officers were reported to have disappeared after completion of the tallying process in their constituencies.

The solution that the EU Observer Mission is suggesting is an independent audit of the results- Again, as described in the preliminary report:

To enable doubts over the accuracy of the presidential results to be clarified, it is vital that an independent investigation is swiftly conducted and the ECK demonstrates maximum transparency in this period. As an essential step, the results of all polling stations must be swiftly published in newspapers and on the internet to enable an independent audit to be undertaken.

The problem with this solution is that part of the whole dispute that caused the final meltdown during the results meeting at the Kenyatta International Conference Center is that there is in fact disagreement over exactly which results sheets should really count towards the final national total. ODM leaders (and numerous ECK officials and observers) have pointed out that in numerous constituencies, result sheets used by the ECK differed substantially from those endorsed by returning officers.

Put differently, there are two possible points in the tallying process where results could have been inflated. The first kind of potentially dishonest tallying is with the actual constituency level results, where votes were being added to particular candidates tallies. With this kind of rigging (which could have either happened while counting at constituencies, or at the ECK headquarters), it should be the case that presidential voter turnout numbers should appear to be substantially higher than parliamentary turnout numbers, and there may be even multiple copies of vote record sheets. The second point at which tallying could have been done incorrectly is when the Electoral Commission of Kenya tallied all of the constituency level votes to get national level vote totals for each candidate. If this kind of malfeasance took place, then it would simply be the case that the total number of votes reported for each candidate nationally does not equal the sum of votes for each candidate received in each constituency.

According to Kenyanpundit (who quotes a journalist’s question from the EU EOM news conference), the audit being suggested by the EU mission would only really address the second kind tallying error:

I asked at the EU EOM press briefing this morning if a complete recount were at all possible, and they said no - a lot of the ballot boxes have been tampered with. The only thing that would be possible is a retally - i.e. take the documented constituency tally and count up again for the national figure. However, obviously this is not going to deal with issues like significant differences between presidential and parliamentary votes in individual constituencies, EU observers being turned away from different polling stations, and extremely high voter turnout.

Similarly, the above statement by the EU, which emphasizes publishing “the results of all polling stations” seemingly ignores the fact that the most contentious part of the election is in fact separating the “real” polling station results from those that were falsified either at the constituency or national level.

Given the shortcomings of solutions suggested by election monitoring missions, as well as the limited viability of turning to the courts, both Kenyanpundit and kenyanjurist are emphasizing that any solution must be political as well as legal. But what would such a political solution look like?

The Nation reports that the three major political candidates, Raila, Kibaki, and Kalonzo (of ODM-Kenya) are close to issuing a joint statement calling for calm in the country. However, it is a big leap from jointly calling for peace to actually forging a government of national unity. Although commentators from the Nation Columnists to Gordon Brown are suggesting such power-sharing arrangements as the way forward, Chris Blattman accurately points out that such suggestions are naïve at best. That said, I personally have no better suggestion for breaking the national-level deadlock- Raila seems unwilling to acknowledge the legitimacy of Kibaki’s claimed electoral victory or to cancel his mass protest scheduled for Thursday and Kibaki seems unwilling to name Raila president or take strong responsibility for the violence that has been going on since this past weekend.

Given that a national-level political solution may take months of negotiations between Raila, Kibaki, and various international actors, it is apparent to me that the immediate solutions to ongoing violence and insecurity are going to need to be local. The Nation’s coverage of the surprising lack of violence in Mlango Kubwa, a Nairobi neighborhood that has experienced a substantial number of clashes in the past, presents one kind of stable local order that might be able to emerge.

Since riots broke out in the city on Sunday, no major incidents have been reported in Mlango Kubwa.

“There are some hooligans who came from Mathare 4A area and started setting some kiosks on fire,” a trader said. He said the residents repulsed the gangsters. After that incident, elders resolved that the residents should not engage in the chaos.

“Here it is peaceful. Fighting is going on a few kilometres away from here, but we are keeping guard to make sure no one comes to incite people to fight one another,” said Mzee Juma Hussein. There were several groups on Juja Road who were keeping vigil to ensure no one entered the slum to cause unrest, as happened on Sunday when some shops were burnt.Mzee Hussein said residents of Mlango Kubwa want nothing to do with the chaos.

A survey by the Nation on Tuesday established that it was business as usual in Mlango Kubwa. Kiosk owners sold foodstuff and other wares.

Although we know that local conflicts can shape violence through a process of alliance with national level ethnic divisions, the challenge in Kenya will be to do the reverse-to rebuild national level political order from systems of community governance that have survived (and perhaps been transformed by) the polarizing national elections.

so this is the new year?

Kibaki the lame duck. Political cartoon by Gado, found via Kumekucha.

President Kibaki's apparent refusal to directly address the violence that is continuing throughout the country is becoming untenable. The BBC and Australian news sources have just reported that over 30 people (at least 25 children) were been killed in Eldoret (a city in Western Rift Valley), when a church that they were taking refuge in was burned. Bloggers are reporting that elsewhere the situation remains dire, with paramilitary troops guarding the city morgue in Nairobi (possibly to prevent accurate death counts from being released), shortages of food, water, fuel, cellphone credit, and cash from ATMs (Kenyanpundit). Several reputable blogs have also reported sharp increases of sexual violence. From Thinker's Room:

Nairobi Women’s hospital reports sharply increased incidences of rape, gang rape and sodomy based purely on numbers of people that have accessed their services. Considering the public transport system has ground to a halt I shudder at the thought of the actual numbers on the ground.

(Also Reported by Kenyanpundit )

International pressure on kenya has continued to increase in the last day, with the EU observer mission stating that the election "lacked credibility" (BBC) and British Prime Minister Gordon Brown encouraging Kibaki and Raila to meet to work together for unity (also BBC). Kenyanpundit reports that the international community is pushing for Kibaki to allow a recount that is broadcast live by the media. She also reports that members of the international community are flying in the former president of Sierra Leone to talk with Kibaki (presumably to provide a cautionary tale about the path he is treading).

Also today, several Electoral Commission of Kenya commissioners have publicly joined the side of the opposition ODM party and international observers (The Standard, via All Africa), arguing that there were substantial irregularities in the counting and reporting of votes, and demanding a judicial review of the tallying process.

At the same time that more and more voices inside and outside of Kenya are demanding recount, other Kenyan commentators are also making arguments similar to my comments from yesterday in demanding stronger leadership from the opposition's Raila Odinga. Kenyaimagine, which has been providing some of the most balanced online commentary on the situation, today published an excellent editorial calling on Raila and other ODM leaders to start making available their evidence of rigging. As they argue:

One of the problems of Raila and the ODM's chest-thumping after they [SIC] election is that it only served to whip up emotions without producing any facts.

Writing in the Daily Nation, Macharia Gaitho also highlights the crucial role that Raila and other ODM leaders will play in the resolution of this situation:

Mr Raila Odinga may be rightfully aggrieved at the election outcome. He may be enjoying the paralysis facing the newly-installed president, and salivating at the prospect of an Orange Revolution that will run the president out of town and pave the way for his own triumphant entry into State House.

But this should be the time for statesmanship, not brinkmanship. Mr Odinga may well have been robbed of electoral victory, but this is the time to demonstrate leadership in the interest of the nation.

Nobody right now is better placed than Mr Odinga and his key ODM lieutenants, Mr William Ruto and Mr Musalia Mudavadi, to do what the Government is unable to do – save this country from total destruction, and President Kibaki’s people from the threat of genocide.

The ODM leaders must rise above the political fray and call off their people who have reacted with such anger against what they see as a stolen election. If their intervention can restore a peace the Government is unable to, that will be the real demonstration of who has the people’s mandate.

To respond to Laia's comment from yesterday, I do think that theoretically Kibaki could do a lot to change the situation, by publicly condemning the violence- but doing this would also come close to acknowledging that there might be real grievances behind the violence (as opposed to pure thuggery as government spokesmen are asserting) and that the vote might not be legitimate, both of which would start the movement towards possibly overturning the election results, which his regime doesn't seem anywhere close to doing just yet. As a result, it does seem like Raila is the one who has the strategic space necessary to try to control some of the violence- as actually taking action that reduces violence will only serve to bolster his claim to be the actual president. If his party is the coherent organization that it presents itself as being, they should be able to control militants as well as rank and file- this is the same argument that Stathis Kalyvas made in his article on religious parties in Belgium and Algeria. If the ODM is as incapable (or unwilling) as the Kibaki government in taking concrete actions towards curbing the violence, Kenya's future is dire indeed.

Macro/Micro Updates from Kenya

ODM presidential candidate Raila Odinga, after a recent press conference. (Image from Mentalacrobatics)


So anyone who reads this blog is probably pretty up to date about what has been going on in Kenya over the last day, either from the major international news outlets, from kenyanpundit, or for Chris Blattman's excellent wrap-up of local sources, so I'll spare you the full recap.

The most recent news reports from the national arena seem to indicate that things are taking a slightly different tone. The police commissioner, Major General Hussein Ali, has given a press conference stating that, despite rumors to the contrary, neither he nor any high ranking military officers have resigned, and that senior ODM (opposition) leaders are not currently under arrest or house arrest. In addition, the opposition candidate, Raila Odinga, has taken a very responsible tone in his most recent press statement. He called off the "shadow inauguration" that was supposed to take place today, and instead scheduled a peaceful mass protest for Thursday. He has also spoken out against the violence that is taking place throughout the country, arguing that, “We will not recognise Kibaki as the President of Kenya and will fight him out of office through peaceful and legal means.”

On the ground, things seem a bit mixed. M., a friend of mine who is in the security forces in Kisumu (an opposition stronghold in Western Kenya) has reported that things there are quite bad. When I spoke to him earlier today, he told me "Its terrible man, terrible terrible. It is beyond us- these guys have turned rowdy- we can't contain them". According to him, police are struggling to contain the situation-Kisumu City is under a curfew from 6 PM to 6 AM, during which time no one is supposed to leave houses or enter or exit town. Despite these measures, people are moving out to rural areas, because violence is spreading into the suburban estates. While the violence still seems to be generalized looting, as I reported yesterday, M. reported that it is taking on a more targeted nature, "Everything is being burned- the Kikuyus [Kibaki's tribe] are being burned, their shops are being looted". According to M., at least 50 people have been killed.

Another friend of mine, R., is in Laikipia, the multi-ethnic region in north central kenya, where I did the bulk of my fieldwork. Laikipia (which is comprised of three districts- Laikipia North, Laikipia East, and Laikipia West) has a large population of Kikuyus and a substantial minority of various pastoralist tribes (Maasai, Samburu, Pokot, Turkana, Kalenjin) that all largely supported the opposition. He said that Nanyuki (the capital of Laikipia East District and one of the largest towns in central Kenya) has been peaceful, and even jubilant, largely because the vast majority of Nanyuki residents are Kikuyu. However, he said that as he traveled across Laikipia today, there has been substantial insecurity in more ethnically mixed areas- Kikuyu business owners and farmers have fled the market center of Ngare Nyiro, due to perceived hostility from their Maasai and Pokot neighbors. R. reported that in the western portion of Laikipia, which has experienced substantial violence off and on over the last few years, things are currently stable, but partially due to increased security presence- he said that he saw over 12 truckloads of various security forces (administration police, kenya police, army) in Rumuruti, the headquarters of Laikipia West. In this area, which is predominantly Kikuyu, R., who is Maasai, is concealing his ethnic identity- not wearing Maasai bracelets or speaking Maa, and if conversations turn to politics, he says things like "It is good that there is no change, it is our president who has been leading us", even though he has been an ardent supporter of the opposition over the last year.

Finally, a third friend of mine who is employed by the provincial administration in the Rift Valley said that things were generally cooling off across the rift valley. He said that last night there were violent confrontations in Nakuru (the capital of Rift Valley Province), but that things are cooling off now. He said that operations are being directed by District Commissioners, with higher levels of the Provincial Administration just monitoring the situation. They are trying not to act hastily as they know the region is a potential powder keg- ODM is very popular there, but there are also substantial numbers of President Kibaki's PNU, meaning that a heavy-handed response could only provoke more violence He said that the major hotspots in the province at present were in southern maasailand, particularly Narok South.

So it seems that Kenya is still at the critical juncture- things have not exploded everywhere and it seems that no "points of no return" have been crossed yet. I think Raila is the most important person in the country right now, and how he plays the next few days are going to be crucial for the future of the country. First, I think it is crucial that he really comes out even more strongly against violence, especially by working with local leaders from his political party to curb violent acts by their supporters. If ODM is able to actually control their followers, they will be able to make a strong case for being the coherent, unified, victorious party that they are claiming to be. Second, I think it is crucial that he continues to work closely with the international community, particularly the election observer mission, in documenting and verifying the election irregularities that he alleged yesterday. It seems that the international community is quickly jumping to his support- even the United States has just retracted its message of congratulations to Kibaki, meaning that we are ready to consider the evidence that this election was rigged and apply pressure to the regime. Its a fine line between peacefully advancing legitimate claims and recklessly stoking animosity and polarizing the populace- lets hope Raila stays on the right side of that line.

!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Kibaki has just been announced as winning reelection as president of kenya, this is after the opposition leaders claimed to have evidence and testimony from an election official that results were being doctored!

violence and voting

So I was about to write a post arguing that western media coverage of Kenya's election has been overly quick to emphasize the "chaos" and "rigging", as typical of the way that African politics are presented in the west more generally. I was going to argue that while this might be the case in some localities, the majority of Kenyans were abstaining from violence, and that western reporting has missed the nuances of what I think is going on there (based on conversations with friends and coverage by excellent local blogs such as kenyanpundit and mentalacrobatics) Then I saw this truly chilling footage from Kisumu (an opposition stronghold near Lake Victoria in the west of Kenya), which was posted to youtube by NTV (Kenya's leading TV network):




Not that this changes my mind to believe that everyone, everywhere in Kenya is taking to the streets, and that the (other) country I love will be reduced to a pile of rubble very soon. But it did convince me that where it is bad, it is REALLY bad. I generally resist phrases such as "chaos", "disorder", and "anarchy" as being used to freely- yet its hard to think of other descriptors when seeing these images of people passing household appliances out of windows. It also reminds me of just how high the stakes are-everyone in Kenya needs to be proactive against mob justice or opportunism or thuggery or tribalism- if those who thrive on violence are allowed to dictate the tone and pace of the next few days, things could go in a very bad direction.

However, since I set out to pick a bone with the western Media, that's what I'll do ... watching the kisumu footage also confirmed my previous hunch that categorizing all of what is going on as "ethnic violence" (as has been typical of most western media coverage) is a bit misleading. Watching this footage, what you see are not running battles between mobs from different groups or ethnic sloganeering, but mostly people taking advantage of confusion to gain personally- i feel like this is most summed up by the footage of the guy calmly lacing up his brand new sneakers. Not that I can claim to be a sociologist of the riot, but from what I've read, this does seem to fit- people might take part in a violent mass event for any range of reasons- indignation at a political process that isn't working as it should, the excitement of smashing shit up with a large crowd of people, the opportunity to get some free stuff while evading arrest...

In contrast, I think western media coverage has tended to really play up the "ethnic passions" angle- and not just because that's what whey're saying (although it is what they're saying). Take a look at these two photos run by the New York Times in their last online article on Kenya







In both, the impression is very different from what you get from watching the Kisumu footage- they single out individuals, holding violent weapons, with symbols of destruction and disorder in the background - it strongly evokes the image of individual passions- of primitive violence. To be fair, both of these images are from kibera, where the violence has been described as ethnic clashes from a number of sources, but I think the stakes demand more nuanced reporting, both on the variations in the nature of violence across kenya, and in the distribution and character of non-violence. I think the kenyan blogosphere has done a good job with this, but I agree with Mentalacrobatics, who argues that more people need to start speaking up. In addition, it is well past time for the mainstream media to follow their lead.


Lumping all of the violence in Kenya as "ethnic" is not only inaccurate, it has the potential to set off a spiral whereby media coverage creates a self-perpetuating cycle- violence breaks out, is labeled tribal, stokes tensions and brings more people onto the streets, generates more alarmist reporting (especially from western papers), and so on. Now is the time to break the cycle.